Quantifying vegetation response to environmental changes on the Galapagos Islands, Ecuador using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI)

Abstract The vegetation of the Galapagos Islands (Ecuador) is strongly influenced by climate. El Niño events, seasonality, isolation, volcanism, and increasing human activity define ecosystems archipelago. Given their socio-cultural economic importance, it critical to monitor response changes in climate assess its vulnerability. This study explores potential use Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) as a proxy describe trends primary productivity (2000–2019) models relationship between NDVI variables including evaporation atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. From numerous possible co-variates compiled from reanalysis satellites, we identify independent that most influence using least absolute shrinkage selection operator (LASSO) method. Significant variables, concentration, evaporation, autocorrelation (1-month 12-months lagged NDVI) are then used model generalized linear (GLM) framework. predicts more effectively where values for high (high elevation, lush vegetation), clearly reflects seasonality. Validation across pixels produces R 2 ranging 0.05 0.94, mean 0.57 (0.65 elevation >20 m). methodology has continuously non-intrusively sensitive ecological regions, such Galapagos.